Claimant Count in Trafford

The Claimant Count indicates the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed. The Claimant Count in May 2024 was 30.6% higher than in January 2020. The rate of claimants to residents aged 16 to 64 was 3.1% in May 2024 representing an increment of 0.8% points from January 2020. The number of claimants has been decreasing from April 2021 but started to increase again from January to April 2023 and again from Jan 2024.

Change in the Claimant Count for Trafford compared to January 2020

The Trafford MSOA with the largest share of claims in May 2024 was Old Trafford with 14.6% of all claimants within Trafford, more the double of claims than Gorse Hill, the MSOA with the second largest number of claims. 11 MSOAs out of 28 have more claims in May 2024 compared to May 2023. Gorse Hill have the largest increase in number of claims with 45 more, followed by Firswood (35). Broadheath & Firsway has the largest reduction in number of claims with 45 less, followed by Altrincham West, Dunham & Warburton (-25) and Flixton & Moorside (-15).

Change in the Claimant Count for Trafford's MSOAs

The MSOAs with higher claimant rate in May 2024 were Old Trafford with 7.5%, Partington with 6% and Gorse Hill with 5.7%. From the top 5 MSOAs with the highest rates, only Partington had a lower rate when comparing May 2023 to May 2024. The MSOAs where the claimant rate have decreased more from May 2023 to May 2024 were Broadheath & Firsway with -0.7% points decrease, followed by Altrincham West, Dunham & Warburton with -0.4%.

In Trafford, from May 2023 to May 2024 3 out of 11 of the age bands has decreased the number of claimants. The age band 45-49 had the most increase with 90 more claimants. When considering the reduction of claims the age band 30-34 years had the largest reduction with -40 less claims.

Change in the Claimant Count by age bands in Trafford
Change in the Claimant Count by broad age bands in Trafford

At the start of 2020 the age band 25-34 already had the highest number of claims, however after the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic which started in March 2020 this figure increased more sharply compared to the other age bands. The claimant rate as a proportion of Trafford’s population within each age band showed then a higher increase in the age bands of 16-24 and 25-34 compared to the others. From January 2023 the count and rate of all age bands started to increase but the figures are fluctuating from April 2023.

More than half of Trafford’s claimants are residents of 1 quarter of the MSOAs. Around half of the claimants are between 25 and 44 years.

Claimant Count for Trafford's MSOAs by age band

Universal Credit claims in Trafford

The Universal Credit claims in Trafford have increased 107.5% from January 2020 to May 2024. The rate of claims as a proportion of people age 16 to 64 increased form 6.1% to 12.7% from January 2020 to May 2024. Claimants are migrating from legacy benefits to Universal Credit which replace six means-tested benefits for working-age people: Working Tax Credit, Child Tax Credit, Housing Benefit, Income Support, income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance, and income-related Employment band Support Allowance (ESA).

Change in the Universal Credit claims for Trafford

The Trafford MSOA with the largest share of claims in May 2024 was Old Trafford with 12.4% of all Universal Credit claims in Trafford. All 28 MSOAs have more claims in May 2024 compared to May 2023. The MSOAs with more additional claims when comparing May 2023 to May 2024 were Old Trafford (352), Partington (201) and Gorse Hill (190). The MSOAs with more increase in percentage change from May 2023 to May 2024 were Ashton upon Mersey South with 26% change and Hale with 24% change.

Change in the Universal Credit claims for Trafford's MSOAs

The MSOAs with higher rates of Universal Credit claims in May 2024 were Partington with 33% and Old Trafford with 26.3%. The MSOAs where the rate of Universal Credit claims has increased more from May 2023 to May 2024 were Partington with 4.1% ponts increase and Old Trafford with 4% points increase.

In Trafford from May 2023 to May 2024 the 45-49 age band has the largest increment in percentage change of Universal Credit claims with 33%. When considering the number of additional claims from May 2023 to May 2024 the 5-year age band 40-44 years had the highest with 560 more claims. All age bands had an increment of claims compared to May 2023.

Change in the Universal Credit claims by age band for Trafford

Following the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 the number of claims for all ages rose dramatically from pre-pandemic levels at a similar proportion for all age bands with the age band 16-24 rising faster in May 2020. At the start of 2020 the age band 25-34 had the highest number of claims and also the highest rate maintaining that position after the rise from March 2020 until May 2022 when the 35-44 became the age band with the highest number of claims. The age band 16-24 has the lowest number of claims among the other age bands from July 2021. All the age bands are increasing their number of claims particularly from January 2023.

The Conditionality regimen for entitlement to Universal Credit is associated to work-related things that claimants will have to do to maintain eligibility. In Trafford the largest proportion of Universal Credit claims are in the “No work requirements” category however there is also a significant proportion of claims under “Searching for work”. In Old Trafford, 36% of Universal Credit claimants were under “No work requirements” whilst 27% where “Searching for work”. In Partington, 47% of claims were under “No work requirements” whilst 19% of claims were under “Working - no requirements”, and 17% under “Searching for work”.

Claimants moving across from legacy benefits to Universal credit and new applications are increasing the number of claimants with no work requirements. Claimants with a disability or health condition which prevents them from working or if they provide care for at least 35 hours a week are not be asked to work. In May 2024, 39.5% (7,297) of claims in Trafford were under “No work requirements”, 22.3% (4,129) were under “Searching for work”, 17.6% (3,249) were under “Working - no requirements”, 14.2% (2,620) were under “Working - with requirements”, 5.4% (990) were under “Preparing for work”, and 1.1% (205) where under “Planning for work”.

Households on Universal Credit can access additional entitlements for children, health and disabilities, housing, and carers, at the top of the standard allowance. Each household can receive more then one entitlement. As a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic the number of entitlements showed a sudden increase whilst at the same time the proportion of household receiving entitlements decreased indicating a larger number of claims not receiving additional entitlements.

As claimants are migrating from legacy benefits to Universal Credit and new claims are reported, the number of household receiving an entitlement have been increasing. From Feb 2023 to Feb 2024, both the proportion of household receiving Limited Capability for Work Entitlement and Child Entitlement have increased 1.8% points. The previous year, from Feb 2022 to Feb 2023, the Limited Capability for Work Entitlement proportion increased 3.7% points whilst the Child Entitlement proportion increased 1.5% points.